The Big Three’s Troubles: Volkswagen, Nissan, and Toyota Face US Tariff Headwinds

According to Carscoops, the tariff policies announced by the Trump administration are predicted to have far-reaching implications for the US automotive industry.

Data suggests that approximately 20% of new cars sold in the US will be impacted once these policies come into effect. Volkswagen, Stellantis, and Nissan are expected to bear a heavier brunt compared to other automakers.

Of the 16.1 million passenger cars sold in the US last year, 9.86 million, or about 61%, were manufactured domestically, thus exempting them from the proposed 25% tariff on goods originating from Mexico and Canada. Currently, this tariff policy is on hold for 30 days.

Per Carscoops, about 2.19 million light passenger cars were exported from Mexico to the US in 2024. This equates to roughly 13.6% of the total US market.

More than 2 million cars were exported from Mexico to the US in 2024. Illustrative image: SMCP.

The number of cars manufactured in the country bordering the US to the south has been on the rise in recent years. Compared to the same period last year, the number of Mexican-made cars in the US market has increased by 13%, significantly outpacing the 1.7% growth of American-made cars.

Approximately 717,000 of the 16.1 million cars sold in the US originated from Canada, accounting for about 4.5%. The number of Chinese-made cars imported into the US in 2024 stood at roughly 57,000, or about 0.4% of the total market.

Volkswagen is identified by Carscoops as the automaker that could be hit the hardest by the new tariff policies if they are officially imposed on Mexican goods. Specifically, about 44% of Volkswagen’s cars sold in the US are sourced from Mexico.

JATO Dynamics analyst Felipe Munoz points out that four out of five of Volkswagen’s best-selling models in the US are produced in Mexico. Should these models become subject to a 25% tariff, Volkswagen would likely have to raise prices, shift production to the US or another country to circumvent the high tariff.

Stellantis is also forecasted to endure significant repercussions once the new tariff policies are implemented. Approximately 40% of Stellantis’ US sales consist of vehicles originating from Mexico or Canada. Nissan imports over 30% of its vehicles sold in the US from Mexico, while 25% of Toyota’s cars are produced in Mexico or Canada.

A significant portion of Stellantis’ US vehicle supply comes from Canada and Mexico. Image: Jeep.

JATO Dynamics suggests that vehicles manufactured in Europe may also face new US tariffs in the future. Last year, Americans purchased around 821,000 cars imported from the European Union, primarily from automakers such as Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz.

“Importing cars into the US will become more difficult across the board. The European Union should prepare for future trade restrictions,” predicts expert Felipe Munoz.

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